Gain – Berwick,, Roxborough and Selkirk
Dumfries and Galloway
This is because the SNP hold these two. The SNP only just gained them in a vintage year. Labour is set to do very badly. Both these seats were Tory 20 years ago.
Tories will gain all their target seats from Labour down to 22nd on target list – Westminster North
The Conservatives will not gain any constituencies from the Lib Dems. This is because 2015 was the nadir of the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems will recover
They will lose Clacton on Sea
they shall gain Hartelpool. This is Labour held and UKIP ran them close last time. Labour’s vote is falling back.
tHEY will gain all the seats they need to on their list up to 5% swing. That is Fife North East – formely Sir Menzies Campbell’s seat. This will involve taking three constituencies off the Scottish National Party.
They will take Bristol West off Labour. They are very close their and Labour’s vote is falling. It will be historic for Labour to lose Tony Benn’s old constituency. He lost it in 1983. Liberal Democrats took his second constituency Chesterfield in 2001.
You might think that the Plaid will play the same role as the SNP did this time – taking seats from Labour in the Celtic fringe. That would over egg it considerably.
They shall gain Ynys Mon from Labour which the Plaid used to hold.
Ceredigion (from the Lib Dems)
and Llaneli from Labour.
They shall gain Belfast South from the SDLP