Labour have 230 seats at the moment. Their worst post war result was 209 MPs in 1983. Labour is at 24% in the polls at the moment. This is appreciably worse than their 1983 outcome. Yet it gets even worse. In 1983 the SNP was feeble – with only three MPs. Nowadays the SNP is a major force – far stronger than Labour in Scotland. Therefore Labour could do much worse than their pisspoor showing in 1983. So take 209 seats and subtract 50 seats to take into account Labour having only one MP in Scotland. That puts Labour down at 160 seats! This is worse than the Tories did in 1997. In fact Labour will not do that catastrophically. In some regions Labour’s support is very reliable. There is a certain point below which Labour will not go. Do not expect the party to implode.
In the last election some of Labour’s already safe seats became rock solid. This was the case in northern England. Labour will not lose any seats there. Labour is vulnerable in the ENglish Midlands.
Labour faces a very long struggle to make itself a party of government again.
Labour will probably claw back 5 seats from the SNP in Scotland. The SNP’s popularity has not been seriously dented since it swept the board last time at the Westminster election.
The PLaid might win some more seats in Wales – like two more. It could profit from Labour’s weakness. This is especially so in three cornered fights.
There is a growing economy and the Prime Minister has a higher approval rating than the leader of the Opposition. These factors together make the Tories all but unbeatable.
The Lib Dems hold 9 seats at the moment. They had over 60 MPs until 2010. But remember the norm for the Liberals since the Second World War. They had fewer than 10 MPs. In 1992 they had only 20 MPs. The Liberal Democrats may recapture some seats from the Conservatives that they lost in southern England in 2010.
UKIP has already reached the summit of its success. It traditionally does worse at Westminster elections that European elections. Therefore one can anticipate that it will not win any seats at all. It is at 10% in the polls – considerably down on its 14% record last time. UKIP’s collapse will have little effect. Tories can breathe easier in southern England. Safe Labour seats in northern England shall become even safer.
The Greens will hold Brighton and maybe capture one more seat.
Gerald Kaufman’s seat will not be captured by George Galloway. Labour shall hold it.
Do not expect and changes in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein might come closer than before in some seats.
The Conservatives look to be in for a very good night. They will go up by at least 20 seats. That may not seem like much but bear in mind the era of landslides is over. They are 10 to 20% ahead of Labour in the polls. There has not been a landslide win since 2001. But be aware that opinion polls usually under rate Conservative support. Tories are better at turnout. Depressed Labour voters might not be motivated to vote. They may indulged themselves in voting for a minor party knowing that Labour cannot possible win.
Tories are on 330 and will go up to 350. (They take 25 off Labour but lose 6 to the Lib Dems)
Labour are on 240 and will go down to 220. (gain 6 from SNP)
Lib Dems on 9 go up to 15 (gain 6 from Tories and 2 from SNP)
Plaid Cymru on 2 go up to 3 (1 from Labour)
SNP on 56 go down to 48
No other changes.