What will happen in the Northern Ireland Assembly election?


Martin McGuinness has resigned as Deputy First Minister. This is because he is dissatisfied with Arlene Foster’s response to the cash for ash scandal. Perhaps the First Minister ought to have fallen on her sword.

McGuinness has forced an early election. He does nothing without partisan calculation. He must reckon that this gambit will redound to the advantage of his party. This is probably correct.

The DUP looks bad. The leader has egg on her face. The DUP will probably lose votes to the UUP. However, this will be insufficient to make the UUP pull ahead of the DUP.

Sinn Fein will probably emerge as the largest party in the North by a whisker. This is not due to them gaining votes so much as unionism being split down the middle.



About Calers

Born Belfast 1971. I read history at Edinburgh. I did a Master's at UCL. I have semi-libertarian right wing opinions. I am married with a daughter and a son. I am allergic to cats. I am the falling hope of the not so stern and somewhat bending Tories. I am a legal beagle rather than and eagle. Big up the Commonwealth of Nations.

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