Russia has announced that its only aircraft carrier is being removed from the coast of Syria. Such a ship would be impossible to sink. Why is the Kremlin pulling back this floating air base? This is part of a wider draw down. Several months ago President Putin announced that Russia had largely succeeded in her aims. This seemed as rash a boast as George W Bush’s statement aboard and aircraft in front of the ”mission accomplished” banner in May 2003.
ISIS has been pushed back. Putin’s policy is to perpetuate the Assad family dictatorship which has already denied the people of Syria civil rights for 47 years. The Russian military has staved off defeat for the Ba’ath Party for the moment. The Ba’athists are only clinging on due to huge amounts of arms as well as money. Russia is providing intelligence, satellite images as well as air power. The Ba’athists are also dependent on arms shipments and troops from Iran, Iraq and Hizbollah. The Chinese have also assisted Assad. There has been limited success. The Ba’thists still only rule the roost on 20% of the territory of the land. Admittedly this is the more densely populated area. ISIS and other militias rules some of the remainder. Much of the rest is unoccupied or disputed. The Ba’athists will remain reliant on huge outside assistance for years to come. We may be coming to the end game. This is not a conventional conflict. There will be no sudden or dramatic finish. Victory will be incremental.
Why is Russia pulling out now when its ultimate goals are far from achieved? The conflict has become a major economic burden. The state budget deficit is already at eye watering levels. Public morale may sag. ISIS may not be able to win outright but it can drag out the conflict. This will cause enemy morale to sag. They can sap the will of the Russians to fight on. The Russian media almost never reports anything negative about its armed forces – either misconduct or casualties. The Russian Army also needs to be ready to fight on a more crucial battlefront – the Ukraine. Moscow will not declare war on the Ukraine or even admit its soldiers are there. But its soldier will be sent there supposedly as volunteers.
Putin is quitting while he is ahead in Syria. The advantage could yet tip back towards ISIS. Members of his cabinet may have grown chary about deeper commitment. If casualties were to mount that would have made Russia abandon the enterprise sooner. The cost of the war is also heavy. It is no longer so cheap to borrow money. This partial disengagement is not quite the indicator of success that the Kremlin claims it to be. This conflict has at least two more years to run. Like the Lebanese Civil War it could rage on for a further ten years. It depends on whether the outside protagonists continue to fund and arm the participants. It is likely that weight of metal will tell in favour of the Assad regime.
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