What will happen in the US election?


Some people are saying the Trump campaign is in meltdown. Much though I would like to believe this I am afraid such forecasts are overly optimistic.

Trump will lose but not by much. He will lose by 8 points. Despite being only narrowly ahead in Texas he will win that state.

As the result is clear some people will feel they can indulge themselves in a vote for a minor party. If it was neck and neck not many people would treat themselves to a vote for the Greens or the Libertarians. Because of this Hillary will not win by a landslide.

Despite the small parties doing well neither of them will win a state. It is a measure of disillusionment with the major parties that the two small parties will get over 10% of the vote for the first time in a century.

Trump keeps bleating about a rigged election. A few days ago he denied the polls were right. He is so childish and emotional that he cannot face unattractive facts. If he dislikes the truth he pretends that the truth is false. Now he has been compelled to acknowledge that he is behind in the polls.  He is falling a little further. He boasts that he is a winner. In fact he is a huge loser. He has had some calamitous business failures. His hundreds of millions of losses have ensured he has not had to pay tax for almost 20 years.

Trump is not as wealthy as he boasts. A journalist said this 5 years ago. Trump threatened to bring him to court. Trump did not make good on this  – the same as most of his public pronouncements.

Hillary is pulling ahead in the race. She is self-assured enough now to campaign outside swing states. She is succouring candidates down ballot – that means gubernatorial, senatorial and House candidates.

Donald Trump is such a wimp that he is blaming everyone but himself for his failure. He says the media is unfair. Boo hoo. He has his enemies in the media. This is partly his own fault for insulting journalists in the most disgusting terms for asking fair questions. He also has journalists who are his publicists – many in Fox News. Many journalists are reporting fairly.

He is his own worst enemy. He has wrecked his chances by his endless lies and many foul insults. He has provided oodles of ammunition to his opponent.

Trump does not even qualify as an adult. He has no maturity and never accepts when he is wrong. He never takes responsibility. He is a loose cannon. He has no discipline and cannot stay on message. Kelly Conway briefs journalists about his Gettysburg Address – it will be heavy on policy. Trump them uses it to savage women who very credibly claim to have been sexually assaulted by him. He cannot stick to his script.

For Republicans it is damage limitation time. Some of them were day one abominators of this gargoyle. But many are rats off a sinking ship. They have only abandoned him when it became blatant that he was a calamity. Their only hope is to abjure any allegiance to him. Then they might salvage something from this election in the Senate and the House.

Evan McMullin is doing well in Utah but not so well as to deny the state to D Trump.

Trump is rich but that does not make him smart. He is capable of malapropisms. He said ”hollowed” instead of ”hallowed ” in relation to Gettysburg.

Steve Schmidt, Frank Lunz and Karl Rove are all saying Trump will lose. This is demoralising the Republican base. Some of them will not vote as it is pointless.

I have seen some you tube videos saying Trump will win. Only one of them showed any pseophological method. It was just wishful thinking from the others.

Trump spreads the very dangerous lie that the election is fixed. He provides no supporting evidence at all. This will de motivate his supporters. Fewer of them will cast ballots. His support may sink lower. He is a self-confessed loser. What a brat not to accept that he lost fair and square.

Republicans have lost the popular vote in presidential elections 5 times out of the last 6. When they won in 2004 they had a war president and prosperity. The Democrats have many advantages including more money. Their candidate also has her husband as an ex president on her side. He carries much weight. The Democrats also have the demographics moving in their direction.

Is this Trump’s last hurrah? Maybe this is a last ditch effort to save his crumbling business empire. He is a malevolent narcissist.   I pray that he dies of a heart attack. I would then say – Good riddance.

About Calers

Born Belfast 1971. I read history at Edinburgh. I did a Master's at UCL. I have semi-libertarian right wing opinions. I am married with a daughter and a son. I am allergic to cats. I am the falling hope of the not so stern and somewhat bending Tories. I am a legal beagle rather than and eagle. Big up the Commonwealth of Nations.

2 responses »

  1. The Dems know the dangers of getting too cocky. That’s why they’re piling it on in the final stretch, with support for all the full ticket in each state.
    Perhaps the shrinking support for Trump will encourage some on the right who figure their vote’s wasted anyway to then cast it for Gary Johnson, but what we’re seeing instead is evaporating numbers for the Libertarian line.
    By the way, I learned years ago not to trust lawn signs. You have wait till the election results to see where the public stands.

    • It would be rash of Democrats to be triumphalistic at this stage. Keith Oberman’s talk of a landslide is unwise. He should not tempt fate. Some voters would be irked by such conceit and seek to burst his bubble.

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