What is happening in the US election.


The Trump campaign is 10% behind. I do not think it will fall much further behind. His ratings have been sinking for some time. His ridiculous accusations are proof positive that he is panic stricken.

Many people have made up their minds. There are not so many floating voters left.

The Trumpsters says – why are people not accusing Obama of sex crime? Er… maybe because he never committed that crime. It speaks volumes about the way Trump views these accusations. They are a mere presentational difficulty. This is nothing to do with justice. It is all about public relations for him. He clearly views those who accused him as a PR issue and nothing to do with morality or law. This is why he exploited those who accused Bill Clinton of similar crimes.

Trump has no moral  bottom line. Previous Republican candidates like Romney and McCain had some ethics.

Trump is becoming ever more undignified. His ludicrous accusations that the election is being stolen are not accompanied by an iota of evidence. Paul Ryan has rightly rounded on Trump for undermining public faith in the electoral system’s integrity.

As the race is not close many people will feel they can indulge themselves in voting Green or Libertarian. This will hurt the GOP more than the Democrats. The GOP stands to lose many people to the Libertarians. The Democrats are not risking many voters going for the Greens.

McMullin in Utah may take a lot of votes. I doubt it will be enough to deprive the GOP of it that state’s electoral college votes.

Republicans have accepted they have lost the presidency. They would like to salvage something. There are several gubernatorial races going on. There are many senatorial elections. The House of Representatives is up for grabs. This is damage limitation time for the GOP. They have predominated in Congress for over 20 years. That is not to say they controlled it all the time but they have held the majority mostly.

Hillary will poll 50% to Trump’s 40% in the presidential election. That is now the way it will pan out for governorships, senatorial seats and the House. Those races are often tighter. Sometimes the margins are much bigger. The Republicans would rather not be dragged down by Trump. He has toxified their brand. More may cut him loose but I suspect not many. A deathbed conversion is unconvincing. There is something to be said electorally speaking for staying with him to the bitter end.

Remember a 55-45 split in the popular vote for the Senate may turn into  more like 65 seats for the Democrats. Some seats are ultra safe for their party so a bigger majority than that in the Senate is hard to contemplate.

Democrats will not gloat. That would help their opponents. It would also make some Democrat supporters think it is safe not to vote.

Republicans are also aware that Trump has fired up the angry white proletarian gun nuts and religious maniacs. These are Tea Party people. If Republican politicians denounce Trump they face a furious backlash from these otherwise loyal Republicans. Anyone who repudiates Trump may find it a challenge to be nominated in future. Trump has an excuse now. The dolchstosslegende. He will say he was only defeated because so many in his party rounded on him. He will overlook why. He was so monumentally mendacious and disgustingly offensive that common decency obliged them to distance themselves from him.

The race is so impassioned that turnout will be quite high.

The GOP was lucky in that the Democrats picked someone who was detested by the Republican base. She is also old so the Democrats could not use Donald’s health against him.




About Calers

Born Belfast 1971. I read history at Edinburgh. I did a Master's at UCL. I have semi-libertarian right wing opinions. I am married with a daughter and a son. I am allergic to cats. I am the falling hope of the not so stern and somewhat bending Tories. I am a legal beagle rather than and eagle. Big up the Commonwealth of Nations.

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