The US Presidential election.

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Donald Trumps’ anointment as the Republican candidate is not assured.

Who will Trump face in November? It is likely that his Democrat opponent will be Hillary Clinton. The other possibility is Bernie Sander.

If it is Hillary then she is likely to win. She polls better with almost every demographic – African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, whites, gays, women, men etc… In some cases she only polls slightly better though.

Trump is popular with ill-educated working class white men. They do not vote so much. More of them will be motivated to cast a ballot this time. Gun owners and religious maniacs are more likely to vote for him.

As the campaign goes on there will be more scrutiny of Trump. Hillary has been in the public eye for a quarter of a century. There can be no deeper scrutiny of her than there has been already.

Trump shouts his mouth off. His vulgarity, willful ignorance, bellicosity  and emotional outbursts are not presidential.

Hillary is stateswomanlike. She has her shortcomings. She seems too scripted. She has made some major mistakes. She is cerebral and some people find that threatening.

Mrs Clinton has peace, prosperity and incumbency on her side. This got Al Gore more of the popular vote in 2000 but not the hanging chads or more importantly not the deciding vote in the Supreme Court.

It is probable that some Republican luminaries will come out in favour of H Clinton. This is because Trump is so vile.

What if Bernie Sanders is selected by the Democrats? That is a game changer. Sanders is leftfield. His sincerity and consistency are admirable. He will be monstered by much of the media for his left wing beliefs. It would be very close between him and Trump. I suspect that he would narrowly beat Trump.

Who will the Vice Presidential candidates be? Trump needs a balanced ticket. He needs his foyer black man. He might pick Dr Carson. As an alibi he might choose Cary Fiorina. However, she was Cruz’s running mate. This was only for a weak. Bearing in mind his invective against Cruz then this woman might refuse to join forces with Trump. Furthermore, it might seem to cynical for them to unite. Having a woman on the ticket would blunt Hillary’s female advantage.

I forecast that Hillary will beat Trump 55%-54%. The chances of Hillary winning are 70%.

Who will she select as her running mate? I suspect it will not be a woman. An all female ticket would be too much of a groundbreaker. Eric Holder is the best choice. A black man with Cabinet experience.

 

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About Calers

Born Belfast 1971. I read history at Edinburgh. I did a Master's at UCL. I have semi-libertarian right wing opinions. I am married with a daughter and a son. I am allergic to cats. I am the falling hope of the not so stern and somewhat bending Tories. I am a legal beagle rather than and eagle. Big up the Commonwealth of Nations.

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