Daily Archives: May 8, 2015

Election post mortem.


The results are not all in.

My predictions were fairly accurate. The Conservative will do about 10 seats better than I predicted. Labour will do about 30 seats worse than I said.  Liberal Democrats will do a lot worse Р22 seats less than I forecast. 22 does not seem like a big difference but when they are left with 8 constituences instead of 30 that means a lot.

SNP did significantly better than I said. They will end on 55 seats and not 40. Perhaps this was wishful thinking on my part. Their gains are spectacular. They could easily poll 50% and not storm so many Lbaour strongholds. Even MPs who are personally popular like former Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy has been decapitated.

Plaid Cymru will not do anything like as well as I said – ending on 3 seats not 8..

I said Galloway would keep his seat but he has been pushed out by Labour. He had a very healthy majority. Minor parties can take seats in by elections but rarely hold them. He was so popular among the Muslim commuinity that I assumed he would retain his constituency. This time there was a chancr to bring in a Lbaout Government so he has been defenestrated.

In Northern Ireland it is pretty much as I said. Lady Hermon held her seat. The Ulster Unionists retook Fermangah S Tyrine after 14 years in Sinn Fein hands. The DUP held North Belfast. The DUP took bac Belfast East. No surprises in SInn Fein keeping all their other seats besides Michelle Goldernew’s old bailiwick. I dod not think the DUP would deprive the UUP of a seat. SDLP held all theirs. I thouhht the UUP would take back Belfast SOuth but no.

I though Clegg would be sent packing. But he has defied my propheyc of doom.

The regional differences have beena ccentuated. The SNP rule the roos tin Scotland more so than ever. They only had 6 seats before. They used to fare well in Holyrood elections but so so in Westminster elections. This has been a wipeout for Labour.

UKIP will get 2 seats and not 4. Farage will almost certainly not win in Thanet SOuth. This coonfounds my predictions. Conservatuces threw a lot of reesource sinto that seat. They ciinsidered it a very high priority to stop the UKIP leader entering Parliament

The shy Conservative fctor has come to the fore. I bet a lot more ethnic minority people voted Conservative than admitted it.

The SNP diid well because Ed Miliband and Jim Murphy failed to connect in Scotland. Labour candidates there are omsoty hacks. SNP candidates are mostly working class, local and actually work outside politics.

The GREEns will get 2 seats at most.

I see the vagaries of the first past the post system. Labour hhave increased their vote share forom 28% to about 34% yet lost seats. People seem to think Labour are less popualr than before but this is not so.

The SNP have 4.5% of the vote but 9% of the seats. UKIP with 13% of the votes will have 0.3% of the seats.

UKIP is now the main opposition to Labour in urban seats in northern England..

The former Lib Dem voters seems to split evenly between Labour and Conservatvie. They did not all go Labour as Labour deluded itsel.

The first past the post system is iniqutitous. I havd supporetd in the past. Partly because it did well for the Cosnervtaies and priduced stable governments. But my dalring UKIP is denied by it. Voting behavour would change if the voting system diid. Then people woild feel it wrthwhile tov te for minro parties. The wastes vote argument would be redundant.

Ed Miliband must go. He cannot be given another chance Chuka Umunna to be next leader.

Boris Johnson cannot come into the Cabinet until he stands down as Mayor iin 2016.

Referendum will probably go ahead in 2017 on EU membership with all three mai  aprties camaigngng to stay in. A few Conservative MPs will camaign for a No . Cameron may be offered cosmetiic concessions. Depressingly yh eurphiles seems to be in the ascedant In mi term some protest voters will vote No on the EU issue since they ar eunhappy with the government.

Labour has been poling uup extra vote sin north England and not where it needs them to take Tory seats in the English Midlands.

Clegg must go. Farron will replace him. Veyr little choice with onyl 8 MPs

The SNP will do well next eelction toO. Their majroities are so big that they cannot be turne dout of many seats

The growing economy mnake Conservative chances for 2020 qute good.

Conservatives had decent polcicies, the economy had come right,. People fiirgave tge party for austerity. It was seen as necessary.

Milibands face did not fit as Pimre Minister. They had some attractive polcieis about the cost of living and building houses.

Labour needs to take a long hard look at itself. It is preaching to the converted. It still made significant gains in shar eof the vote.

Lib Dems iwl certianly come up next time. They will not be tarred as trators next time sinc rthye wll not be in colaiton

Cameron can run a minroty government. He may need an informal deal with the DUP. He will not give Northern Ireland too much because that will lead to SNP demands for more money for Scotland

Westerminster can and will block requests for another sepratsist referneudm in North Britian. That issue has been settle rfor 20 years, Mnay Lbaour Unionists voted SNP becausr the SNP had left wing pilciies and Lbaour was so feeble this time.

It has been a scintillating election.