Quite patently Assad’s regime has broken every promise it made in this conflict. Time after time major reform was promoised. Many ceasefires have been agreed. Assad and his merry mob have behaved with the utmost bad faith. They are utterly untrustworthy. Easily 10 000 people have been killed. A few of them have been part of the Assad security apparatus. The great majority of the dead are protestors – mostly unarmed when killed. of course is someone is armed then he is not a protestor.
Now the French Government has mooted military action against Bashir Al-Assad’s hideously oppressive rule. I wonder if this has anything to do with the runup to the second round of the presidential election. I doubt it. Getting stuck in to a Middle Eastern war does not go down well with the French electorate. It sits oddly with Paris’ attitude with regard to the liberation of Iraq in 2003.
I doubt the United Nations will authorise the use of force. China and Russia have thrown him a lifeline. They have invested a lot of political capital in rescuing Assad. They want their ally in the region to survive. They want to show the forces of freedom – this far and no further.
Military intervention might – MIGHT – be the best thing for the Syrian people. Of course it could backfire horribly.
It seems rather cowardly but I am minded to say stay out. What are the likely consequences of such inaction. Assad will finish off the rebels and massacre peaceful dissidents. Yes, it is a grisly prospect. Thousands of people will be killed. This may be less than would be killed than in the case of a foreign intervention scenario.
One problem is if intervention does occur one does not know whom one is dealing with. SOme of them are probably religious extremists who may be worse than Assad.
The Syrian military shelled refugees in Syria. This is a shameful thing to do. If I were Turkey I would be on a hair trigger response. Any more provocation like that and I would launch punitive air strikes.
The most probable outcome is that there will be no intervention and Assad’s men will slay his opponents.