Monthly Archives: May 2010

Out but not Brown.

Standard

There is a squatter in 10 Downing Street. He is a 59 year old grey haired man with a Fife accent. He has a wife and 2 children and for some reason he is hanging around like a bad smell. We need to send the baliffs around to evict him. Give that man a one way ticket to Kirkcaldy.

Dr Brown has no right to be there. The election was not even close. We won on votes and seats but quite a long way.

We got more now than Labour did when they won in 2005 .

A lLib Dem Conservative coalition could just work. Many Lib Dem have contatce dcowley Street telling them not to shaire office with us. The Lib Dems do not even want to be in office. They could have been in coalition as the Liberals in the 1970s on a few occasions.

Cameron said that Clogg wanted to hold the country to ransom –  well Clogg is doing that.

It was deeply gratifying to see the wind taken out of his sails. He did much worse than most –  myself included  – expected.

I did not see Dr Harris losing in Oxford West  –  I thought he would hang on.

What a result for Aidan Burley in Cannock Chase –  biggest pro Conservative swing in the Kingdom apparently.

UKIP polled 3% –  they aruguably denied us 20 seats. If we had those we would have a majority just. If we made pulling out the EU a policy and attracted all those UKIP votes we would be in office already. However, we might lose some moderate people into the bargain.

Farage told me that most of his members are former Tories. However, UKIP has former members from the otehr 2 big parties and indeed from no previous party.

It was a shame that poor Mr Farage had that mishap with his kite. He is a top chap, ebullient and a lot of fun. A free spirit –  no robot politician he.

How odd statistics are. Hague in 2001 polled 31.7% for us and this was seen as a fiasco. Under Howard we polled 32.5 and this was seen as a moral victory. Now with Cameron we get 36%  –  just 5% higher than under Hague  – and this is seen as a victory.

It is only about 10% of people change their votes in the UK. There is differential abstention too. Our system is very stable.

I am against PR but it is fascinating to surmise what would happen if we had it. This would changing voting behaviour. People would vote positively not negatively. For instance, people who want to vote UKIP vote Conservatives to stop the real europhiles.

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